Blackjack Basic Strategy, Hand by Hand — and What It Changes
Blackjack is the one casino table game where your decisions change the long-run cost of playing. The cards are random, but whether you hit a 12 against a dealer’s 3 or split a pair of nines is not. Basic strategy is simply the set of decisions that loses the least over time for every combination of your hand and the dealer’s upcard. This page walks through it hand by hand, then shows what the same evening at the table costs with and without it.
The table rules come first
Before any strategy, check the rules printed in the game information panel. Small differences in the rules move the house edge more than most players expect. The figures below are approximate, for a six-deck game played with basic strategy.
| Rule | Effect on the house edge |
|---|---|
| Six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, blackjack pays 3:2 | Base game: about 0.4% |
| Dealer hits soft 17 | About +0.2% |
| No doubling after a split | About +0.15% |
| Doubling only on 10 and 11 | About +0.2% |
| Blackjack pays 6:5 instead of 3:2 | About +1.4% |
| Late surrender offered | About −0.1% |
The single most expensive rule is the 6:5 payout on blackjack: on its own it can more than triple the cost of a game. If two tables look the same, the payout line is the first thing to compare.
What the dealer’s upcard tells you
Most decisions in basic strategy come back to one number: how often the dealer busts from the card you can see. With the dealer standing on soft 17, and after the dealer has checked for blackjack, the chances are roughly:
| Dealer shows | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer busts | 35% | 37% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 26% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 17% |
A 4, 5 or 6 is the dealer’s weakest position, which is why many stiff hands stand there and many doubles happen there. From a 7 upward the dealer usually makes a hand, so you have to improve yours.
Hard hands
A hard hand has no ace, or an ace that can only count as 1. The chart below is for the base game described above.
| Your total | Dealer 2–3 | Dealer 4–6 | Dealer 7–9 | Dealer 10–A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 or less | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit |
| 9 | Hit vs 2, double vs 3 | Double | Hit | Hit |
| 10 | Double | Double | Double | Hit |
| 11 | Double | Double | Double | Double vs 10, hit vs A |
| 12 | Hit | Stand | Hit | Hit |
| 13–16 | Stand | Stand | Hit | Hit |
| 17 or more | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand |
Where late surrender is offered, giving up 16 against a 9, 10 or ace and 15 against a 10 saves money compared with hitting.
Soft hands
A soft hand contains an ace counted as 11, so one more card cannot bust it. That is why soft totals are doubled more often than hard ones.
| Your hand | Double against | Otherwise |
|---|---|---|
| A+2, A+3 | 5–6 | Hit |
| A+4, A+5 | 4–6 | Hit |
| A+6 | 3–6 | Hit |
| A+7 (soft 18) | 3–6 | Stand vs 2, 7, 8; hit vs 9, 10, A |
| A+8, A+9 | — | Stand |
Soft 18 surprises many players: it looks like a decent total, but against a 9, 10 or ace it wins less often than it loses, and drawing a card improves it more often than not.
Pairs
| Your pair | Split against | Otherwise |
|---|---|---|
| A+A, 8+8 | Every upcard | — |
| 2+2, 3+3, 7+7 | 2–7 | Hit |
| 4+4 | 5–6 | Hit |
| 5+5 | Never — play as a hard 10 | Double vs 2–9, hit vs 10, A |
| 6+6 | 2–6 | Hit |
| 9+9 | 2–6, 8–9 | Stand vs 7, 10, A |
| 10+10 | Never | Stand |
Two eights make 16, the worst total in the game; split, they become two hands that each start from 8. Two tens are already 20, and breaking them up throws away one of the strongest hands you can hold.
Six hands, played by instinct and by the chart
| Hand | Instinct says | The chart says | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 vs dealer 3 | Stand, you might bust | Hit | Only a 10-value card busts you, and the dealer’s 3 is not weak enough to wait for |
| 16 vs dealer 10 | Stand and hope | Hit (surrender if offered) | Standing on 16 only wins when the dealer busts, about 23% of the time here |
| A+7 vs dealer 9 | Stand on 18 | Hit | Soft 18 cannot bust, and 18 loses to most of the dealer’s finishing totals |
| 11 vs dealer 6 | Hit | Double | The best moment to put more money on the table |
| 8+8 vs dealer 10 | Stand on 16 | Split | Two hands starting from 8 lose less than one hand of 16 |
| 9+9 vs dealer 7 | Split | Stand | 18 already beats a dealer who is likely to finish on 17 |
Insurance and even money
When the dealer shows an ace, you are offered insurance: a side bet of half your stake that pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack. In an endless shoe, 4 of every 13 cards are worth ten, so the dealer completes blackjack about 30.8% of the time. The insurance bet then returns 2 × 30.8% − 69.2% = −7.7% of what you put on it. “Even money” on your own blackjack is the same bet in disguise. Basic strategy declines both.
One evening at the table, played three ways
Here is the “before and after” in numbers. Take an average stake of 10 units and two paces of play: about 60 hands an hour at a live dealer table and about 150 at a fast digital table.
| How you play | Approximate house edge | Expected cost: 60 hands (600 units wagered) | Expected cost: 150 hands (1,500 units wagered) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic strategy, good rules | 0.4% | 2.4 units | 6 units |
| Instinct (estimates vary) | about 2% | 12 units | 30 units |
| “Mimic the dealer”: hit to 17, never double or split | about 5.5% | 33 units | 82.5 units |
These are averages over many hours, not a forecast for tonight; any single session can end well above or well below them. What the strategy changes is the price of the entertainment, not the fact that the game carries one. Set the amount you are prepared to spend before you sit down, keep it separate from everyday money, and play only if you are 18 or over.
Using the chart at CaptainsBet’s live tables
The CaptainsBet casino lobby lists blackjack among both its digital and live dealer games. A few practical points:
- Open the rules panel of each table and check the blackjack payout, whether the dealer hits soft 17 and whether you can double after splitting.
- Side bets such as perfect pairs or 21+3 are separate wagers with their own, usually much higher, house edge; basic strategy does not apply to them.
- The decision timer at live tables is short. Keeping the chart open on a second screen or on paper is allowed and saves rushed choices.
If football is your other interest, the same idea of comparing costs before choosing a bet runs through our article on outright and single-match betting.